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June 2023 | MONTHLY NEWSLETTER |  Private Client Group | dsf
Capital Markets Update
Debt & Structured Finance 
CBRE
Welcome ! 
Insights & News
Go West, NRP: One Of Country's Largest Multifamily Developers Opens 2 New Markets
"The NRP Group, one of the nation’s largest developers, builders and managers of multifamily properties, is expanding west from its Midwestern roots to develop mixed-income and affordable housing in Phoenix and Las Vegas for the first time.." ...read more here
How Lenders are Dealing with Distressed Commercial Real Estate So Far
“As the amount of troubled loans mounts, real estate lenders are revisiting strategies from the Great Recession to avoid taking back the keys on some assets.."  ...read more here
Real Estate Hiring in Southern California Shows Strength in May

"The region’s real estate employment, ranging from agents to construction workers, grew by 6,200 jobs in May, which is 77 percent faster than the norm for the region, according to Jonathan Lasner, a veteran business columnist for the Orange County Register. His research found that an average of industry 3,500 jobs were added in May from 2015 to 2019." ....read more here

Positive News
AZ: New report touts effectiveness of state’s water management despite national media naysayers
“What the model ultimately shows is that our water future is secure: the Assured Water Supply Program is working. Water supplies for homeowners and businesses are protected. Growth has been planned for and will continue. My message to Arizonans is this: we are not out of water, and we will not be running out of water.” 
 
Economic Watch: May Job Growth Far Exceeds Expectations

The 339,000 jobs added in May far exceeded expectations. If this level of job growth continues, the Fed will have to continue raising interest rates.

However, May’s impressive job growth belies other indicators of an economic slowdown: slower wage growth, weaker manufacturing activity and moderating consumer spending. In addition, tighter credit conditions due to recent bank failures have yet to affect the economy.

We still expect that the Fed will pause its interest rate increases when it meets this month and hold them steady before cutting rates later this year.
 

Read CBRE Report Here

Northeast, Midwest Eclipse Sun Belt for Multifamily Rent Growth
CBRE has identified four classifications of markets with similar multifamily rent growth patterns since the start of the pandemic: Sun Belt/Mountain, Urban Hubs, Midwest/Northeast and Florida. The Midwest/Northeast regional group is expected to see cumulative multifamily rent growth of 5.2% over the next two years, replacing Sun Belt/Mountain as the leader.

 
Global Capital Markets Conditions June 2023
  • Uncertain macroeconomic conditions and rising interest rates sustained a slowdown in capital market activity in Q1 2023
  • Global commercial estate investment volume fell 55% y-o-y to US $147 billion in Q1 2023
  • Higher borrowing costs and weaker fundamentals have added upward pressure to cap rates across al regions and property types
  • Tighter financial conditions and a deteriorating economic outlook in the U.S. will further reduce commercial real estate investment in 2023
     

Download Report

FHA Increases Large Loan Amount
Global Industrial Rents Continue to Grow on the Back of Low Vacancy
"The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) today published a Mortgagee Letter that increases the threshold for what it considers a large loan from $75 million to $120 million. FHA said the increase – the first since 2014 – is “designed to simplify underwriting for multifamily housing development without presenting undue risk to FHA, and to provide for regular adjustments to the threshold so it does not unduly lag market changes."
Debt Overview 
Economic Watch: Fed Pauses Rate Hikes but Remains Open to Further Tightening
The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at a range of 5.00% to 5.25%, ending a cycle of 10 consecutive rate hikes totaling 5 percentage points since March 2022.

However, the Fed indicated that it may raise rates two more times this year if core inflation remains elevated.

Compared with its earlier outlook, the Fed now expects stronger GDP growth for 2023 (1.0% vs 0.4% previously) and lower unemployment (4.1% vs. 4.5%), lower headline inflation (PCE 3.2% vs. 3.3%) and higher core inflation (3.9% vs. 3.6%) at year end.
Ripple Effects

The Bank of Canada ended its rate hike pause earlier this month and increased the policy interest rate by 25 bps to 4.75% in a surprise move that sent ripple effects throughout global central banks. Preceding that decision, recent economic data had suggested that the factors stoking inflation were once again proving persistent and cumulated in the sudden reversal of the inflation trend. As a result, the Bank of Canada opted to be proactive on concerns that disinflationary momentum could be waning.

Over the weeks that followed, other major global central banks also stepped up their stances on the growing need for tighter monetary policy. The European Central Bank lifted interest rates by 25 bps and effectively guaranteed another increase in July. The Bank of England surprised markets with a 50 bps increase and reiterated its willingness to do whatever is necessary to return inflation to target. The Federal Reserve elected for a temporary pause this month to assess the situation, however, at the same time also indicated the need for even higher interest rates by year-end than previously expected.

Interest Rate Averages by Lender Type & Asset Type
Treasury Rates as of 6/29/2023
4.4905%
3-Year Treasury
4.1283%
5-Year Treasury
3.9799%
7-Year Interpolated 
3.8393%
10- Year Treasury
4.1043%
20-Year Treasury
Swap Rates as of 6/29/2023
5.087%
2-Year
4.642%
3-Year
4.189%
5-Year 
3.99%
7-Year
3.866%
10-Year
Libor Rates as of 6/29/2023
5.205%
1-Mo
5.3343%
3-Mo
5.73957%
6-Mo
SOFR as of 6/29/2023
3.4406%
1-Mo
Prime as of 6/29/2023
3.4406%
Meet the Team Spotlight
Amber Coleman
Q: Where did you grow up?
A: Scottsdale, AZ

Q: Where did you attend school?
A: Arizona State University (undergrad), University of Arizona (grad)

Q: What is your favorite thing about living in Arizona?
A: I appreciate the dry heat over humidity?

Q: What was your first job? 
A: Working at a candy stand for a local youth basketball league

Q: What do you enjoy doing outside of work? 
A: Trying new restaurants around the Valley

Q: What would your perfect weekend look like?
A: Travelling to a new city, exploring

Q: Describe an interest hobby or pastime that you use to have
A: I used to pole vault in high school and play basketball competitively

Q: What do you love most about your job?
A: Assisting my clients in achieving their CRE investment goals and constantly learning new things about the world of CRE
 
Team Expands Footprint to New York
Small Balance Lending Focused Team Member Expands Team in NY
Lawrence Mazzeo recently moved to New York - deepening the teams' access to sponsor and lender relationships. Lawrence will continue his efforts in sourcing SBL business.
 
What is RevPar?
Real Estate Terminology Explained
Revenue per available room (RevPAR) is a metric used in the hospitality industry to measure hotel performance. The measurement is calculated by multiplying a hotel's average daily room rate (ADR) by its occupancy rate. RevPAR is also calculated by dividing a hotel's total room revenue by the total number of available rooms in the period being measured.
Want to Learn More? 
RevParExplained
 
Book Club
Pre-Suasion: A Revolutionary Way to Influence and Persuade
Named a “Best Business Books of 2016”...draws on his extensive experience as the most cited social psychologist of our time and explains the techniques a person should implement to become a master persuader.

Find Here
The Language of Real Estate
The Language of Real Estate provides a comprehensive encyclopedia-like approach to literally thousands of real estate practices, concepts, and terms.

Find Here
Real Estate Development - 5th Edition: Principles and Process

This comprehensive book covers each stage of the real estate development process, explaining the basics of idea conception, feasibility, planning, financing, market analysis, contract negotiation, construction, marketing, and asset management.

Find Here
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The Weekly Take Podcast | CBRE
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Team Overview 
Our group specializes in debt and structured finance of commercial assets, including multifamily, for private clients nationwide. Located in major West and Southwest markets, including Denver, Los Angeles, Phoenix, San Diego, and San Jose, our access to market data, investors, and lenders is vast. Each member adds a layer of depth to the overall skill, talent, and expertise of the team. The group’s synergetic endeavors provide a high-level commitment to each deal and the client experience.
Click to Download Full Version 
For more information, please contact:
Amber 
Coleman
Vice President
+1 602 735 5805
amber.coleman@cbre.com
 
Kyle
Wilson
Vice President
+1 858 740 7410
kyle.wilson@cbre.com
 
Scott
Ferguson
Vice President
+1 408 705 6623
scott.ferguson1@cbre.com
 
Lawrence
Mazzeo
Vice President
+1 212 984 7164
lawrence.mazzeo@cbre.com
 
Lili
Grbavac
Sr. Associate
+1 213 443 4415
lili.grbavac@cbre.com
 
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