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GREENVILLE MARKETFLASH
Strong population growth fuels Greenville’s job recovery
AUGUST 2021

As cities across the sunbelt continue massive growth, Greenville’s diverse economy has made it one of the nation’s fastest growing boutique cities and often pointed to as an emerging market to watch. Since 2016, over 84,000 people have relocated to Greenville-Spartanburg, 7% of the market’s total population. Over the last decade, Greenville has averaged an annual population growth of 1.19% far exceeding the national average annual growth of 0.73% during that same time. Over the last three years, growth has accelerated to 1.34% annually outpacing the growth of South Carolina as a whole.

Figure 1: Greenville’s Annual Population Growth Has Far Outpaced The U.S. 
Source: Oxford Economics
 

During the months of March and April last year, the COVID-19 pandemic had caused Greenville’s employment to drop by almost 58,000, however almost 80% of those jobs has returned, since. A city that was once known as the textile capital of the world, now attracts educated and skilled talent for its strong automotive, technology, and manufacturing sectors. Distribution, logistics, and transportation companies flocking to the region have turned Greenville into a top-tier industrial hub. Thanks to top-notch local heath systems and strong schools, the healthcare and education industries have almost fully recovered their employment. With vaccines becoming readily available to the public and employees returning to the workplace, the Greenville-Spartanburg region will continue to rank high for future investment activity, occupiers, and residents in the Southeast.

Figure 2: Greenville’s Overall Employment Forecast

Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, BLS

 
UPSIDE
Economic activity in the U.S. and abroad completely normalizes during the summer.
 
BASELINE
60% of the population is vaccinated by mid-year, which helps usher in a sturdy recovery in the leisure and hospitality sector. The labor market recovers in 2022.
 
DOWNSIDE
COVID-19 flare-ups continue and many small services firms close.
 
SEVERE DOWNSIDE
Vaccines prove ineffective against new COVID-19 variants. All sectors of the economy materially contract.

 

Contacts:
Elizabeth Ryan
Research Analyst
Southeast Research
+1 843 720 3559

elizabeth.ryan@cbre.com


Toby Jorgensen
Associate Director
Thought Leadership Research 
+1 404 504 7926 

toby.jorgensen@cbre.com
 
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© 2021 CBRE Statistics contained herein may represent a different data set than that used to generate National Vacancy and Availability Index statistics published by CBRE Corporate Communications or CBRE's research and econometric forecasting unit, CBRE Econometric Advisors. Information herein has been obtained from sources believed reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to independently confirm its accuracy and completeness. Any projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates used are for example only and do not represent the current or future performance of the market. This information is designed exclusively for use by CBRE clients, and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE.

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