Employment is the most critical driver of commercial real estate demand and a recent analysis by CBRE regarding projected job growth in the 53 largest U.S. metros by 2030 tells a compelling story for North Florida. Orlando is projected to lead the charge in total number of jobs gained for the region ranking 11th among all 53 metros and 2nd in Florida just behind Miami (9th).


Figure 1: Leading U.S. Metros for Employment Growth by 2030 (000s)
 


Source: CBRE Research, Moody's Analytics, Q1 2019 (Metro's are MSAs).


In terms of percentage growth, the story is even more positive for North Florida with Orlando employment growth expected to reach 18.7%, tied with Dallas/Ft. Worth and second only to Austin (23.1%). Growth in Jacksonville is also showing no signs of slowing, with employment forecasted to expand by 11.6% by 2030, Tampa trails close behind at 10.1%.

A look at the smaller Florida metros (total job market below 500,000) tells a similar story. Cape Coral-Fort Myers is projected to experience the biggest jump in employment at 21.8%, while the Villages MSA may see gains in the area of 20.6%. The Naples MSA is forecasted for expansion in the realm of 19.4% and Ocala at 14.0%.

This growth will surely set the tone for continued demand across product types and is just one more reason Why Florida.


 
 
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